projection-bias
The mind forecasts tomorrow's feelings from today's — and the forecast is most wrong where the future has least to offer.
Projection bias is the tendency to project one's current affective state onto future predictions, overestimating how much future experience will resemble current feeling. In affective forecasting, people overestimate future enjoyment most where the actual experience has least to offer — the gap between predicted and experienced utility is widest where the prediction was made without the information the experience later delivers. The willingness-persistence-gap room used it to predict that the gap between immediate willingness and delayed persistence opens widest for absent-value tasks, and the inverted-diagnostic room used it to predict that a delayed informational reveal narrows the gap for hidden-value tasks (the forecast updates) while leaving absent-value gaps wide (there was nothing to learn).
Links
free-choice
A way to measure intrinsic motivation: after the task ends and no one is watchin…
WORD · brickinternalization
The process by which a reason outside you becomes a reason inside you — a task y…
ROOM · wallCould the gap between immediate willingness and delayed persistence become a diagnostic — a way for a teacher to tell, after the fact, whether a task they asked someone to do had real value they failed to communicate, or no value at all?
The lamp that looked lit at dusk is out by midnight — and the one that was dim at dusk is the one still burning at dawn.
ROOM · wallCould the free-choice gap diagnostic be inverted — set the same learner two tasks and read the gap difference — and does a delayed informational reveal narrow the gap for hidden-value tasks while leaving absent-value gaps wide?
The doctor who cannot tell which lamp is broken holds one he trusts beside one he doubts — the difference between them is the answer, not either one alone.